Climate News Network. – https://climatenewsnetwork.net/warming-exceed-1-5c-limit-2026/
‘The planet is on course to breach the internationally agreed warming limit of 1.5°C within 10 years, according to new research from Australia.’
By 2026 the planets average temperature could breach the agreed 1.5°C temperature. As global warming is driven by human behaviour we are the key to the change, however global warming is also affected by the burning of fossil fuels which is accelerating constantly. Dumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere which means that the natural climate rhythms also contribute to global warming. Which all points back to human behaviour. This constant pushing of the temperature could push it passed the ‘ideal’ limit set by the UN climate conference in Paris 2015.
In order too control carbon dioxide in we need to look at our own behaviours, Carbon dioxide levels for most of human history oscillated at around 280 parts per million. Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, they have risen inexorably, to reach 400ppm.
“Although the Earth has continued to warm during the temporary slowdown since around 2000, the reduced rate of warming in that period may have lulled us into a false sense of security. The positive phase of the IPO will likely correct this slowdown. If so, we can expect an acceleration in global warming in the coming decades,” Dr Henley says.
“Policymakers should be aware of just how quickly we are approaching 1.5°C. The task of reducing emissions is very urgent indeed.” – Climate News Network
Trajectory towards 1.5c
The IPO has two opposite phases: positive (also known as the “warm” phase) and negative (“cool”). The phases affect the strength of the trade winds that blow east-to-west across the tropical Pacific Ocean. These winds are themselves driven by warm air rising along the equator and the rotation of the Earth.
During a negative IPO phase, the trade winds strengthen, driving heat into the deep Pacific Ocean, which brings cooler water to the surface. Since 2000, the IPO has been in its negative phase, and the cooling effect is thought to play a role in the recent slowdown in global surface temperature rise.
But in its positive phase, the oceans release large amounts of heat into the atmosphere, boosting the warming caused by rising greenhouse gas emissions.
The figure below show how the pattern of global temperature rise (upper chart) has been influenced by the phase of the IPO (lower chart). The faster periods of warming, such as in the 1980s and 1990s, have coincided with a positive phase of the IPO, while warming has been slower during negative IPO phases – as we’ve seen in the early 2000s.
With a faster rate of warming under a positive IPO, global temperature rise could hit 1.5C by 2026. If the IPO is negative in the coming years, the 1.5C milestone would be delayed for around five years to 2031.
Effecting the UK
The government’s latest climate change risk assessment identifies flood risk, and particularly flooding from heavy downpours, as one of the key climate threats for the UK, alongside stresses on water resources, threats to biodiversity and natural habitats, and the repercussions for the UK from climate change impacts abroad.
Computer models that simulate the climate suggest that, as a result of warming, extremely wet winters could become up to five times more likely over the next 100 years, with more intense downpours in the winter months driving a greater risk of flash floods and river flooding, alongside risks from sea-level rise.
Conversely, the models suggest that the UK could experience warmer, drier summers in the future. While that may bring some benefits, it could mean increased risk of drought, and extreme events such as the 2003 heatwave could be the norm by the end of this century. Heatwaves could also heighten pressure on healthcare services, because older populations are more vulnerable to extreme heat, and impact on transport, as higher summer temperatures bring the threat of rail buckling and associated travel delays.
The UK could also face threats to its water security and supply. Declining summer river flows, reduced groundwater replenishment and increased evaporation could all contribute to water loss, which could result in water shortages and restrictions on usage. The government estimates that 27-59 million people could be living in areas affected by water supply deficits by the 2050s, even before considering increasing populations and rising water demand.
The UK may see changing patterns of wildlife and plants as species try to adapt by moving northwards, or have to compete with new non-native species. Habitats may come under increasing pressure – from salt marsh threatened by sea-level rise to beech woodland susceptible to summer droughts. Species could also experience reduced food supply if earlier breeding periods are at odds with the food available at the time.